Trends in Marcellus-Utica Shale Regional Air Quality due to Unconventional Oil and Gas Development (TriMAQs)
Jeremy Gernand
Associate Professor
Pennsylvania State University
Manzhu Yu
Associate Professor
The Pennsylvania State University
John Wang
Associate Professor
The Pennsylvania State University

This study aims to understand how oil and gas development might contribute to any local or regional trends in air quality and associated population exposure across the Marcellus-Utica Shale region from 2004-2023. The team is assessing whether changes in operations or governance may have contributed to any observed trends. The investigators are achieving their research aims with the following steps: 

  1. Organize daily air quality monitoring data for criteria air pollutants and volatile organic compounds into a single dataset for the study region from 2004-2023. 
  2. Develop a dataset of daily oil and gas operational activity (including drilling, fracturing, transport, and gas compression) and an inventory of expected emissions across the study region for the same period as the air quality dataset (2004-2023).
  3. Estimate population exposure to the criteria air pollutants and volatile organic compounds, including exposures experienced by economically disadvantaged areas using the US Census American Community Survey data. 
  4. Estimate the fraction of emissions in the region that come from oil and gas development and how changes in industry practice and governance might have led to changes in air quality. 

Gernand Study Locations

Gernand Study Locations

 

Video
Image
gernand-headshot

Research Team

Jeremy Gernand
Associate Professor
Pennsylvania State University
Manzhu Yu
Associate Professor
The Pennsylvania State University
John Wang
Associate Professor
The Pennsylvania State University

Project Updates

Gernand Quarterly Update - December 2024

Trends in Marcellus-Utica Shale Regional Air Quality due to Unconventional Oil and Gas Development (TriMAQs)

Jeremy Gernand

This study aims to understand how oil and gas development might contribute to any local or regional trends in air quality and associated population exposure across the Marcellus-Utica Shale region from 2004-2023. The team is assessing whether changes in operations or governance may have contributed to any observed trends. The investigators are achieving their research aims with the following steps: 

  1. Organize daily air quality monitoring data for criteria air pollutants and volatile organic compounds into a single dataset for the study region from 2004-2023. 
  2. Develop a dataset of daily oil and gas operational activity (including drilling, fracturing, transport, and gas compression) and an inventory of expected emissions across the study region for the same period as the air quality dataset (2004-2023).
  3. Estimate population exposure to the criteria air pollutants and volatile organic compounds, including exposures experienced by economically disadvantaged areas using the US Census American Community Survey data. 
  4. Estimate the fraction of emissions in the region that come from oil and gas development and how changes in industry practice and governance might have led to changes in air quality. 

What's Happened

  • Completed the compilation of unconventional oil and gas well data, road traffic data, and power plant emissions data between 2004 and 2023 for the study region.
  • Completed AERMOD dispersion modeling for 2018-2023, for SO2, NO2, and PM2.5.
  • Team member Dr. Sourav Das presented “Integration of AERMOD and Machine Learning for Apportioning Air Pollutants to Unconventional Oil and Gas Activities in the Marcellus & Utica Shale Region” at the A&WMA Air Quality Models Conference in Raleigh, North Carolina (November 2024).

What's New

  • Refining estimates of methane and other VOC emissions from well sites.
  • Developing estimates of leakage from well sites and related fugitive emissions of natural gas and gas condensate. 
  • Calculating VOC emissions from power plants based on heat input and emission factors from the literature. 
  • Developing distribution of estimates for road traffic emissions using EPA MOVES and data on vehicle mix over the study period. 
  • Training and testing local scale dispersion models and satellite-based data models. 

  • Comparing predicted and observed air quality data for the year 2023, which includes the significant Canadian wildfire event.
     

    Image
    Gernard

    Figure 1: Predicted vs observed PM2.5 during the Canadian wildfire smoke event in 2023

     


What's Next

  • Incorporate emissions wellsite trucks, compressors, fugitive emissions, condensate tanks, gas storage tanks, and venting/flaring to oil and gas operations to develop emissions estimates for all road traffic in the region. 
  • Complete survey of changes in industry practices and technology over the 2004-2023 time period.
  • Complete dispersion modeling over the 2004-2023 time period. 
  • Apply machine learning to satellite observations of air pollutants and dispersion model output to obtain 1-km daily resolution air quality. 
  • Combine concentration maps with US census data to produce exposure estimates attributable to each source. 

Upcoming Events:

  • Dr. Jeremy Gernand will present “Trends in exposure to air pollutants from Marcellus and Utica shale development” at the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Annual Meeting in Austin, TX (December 2024).